2010 World Basketball Championship update - September 4th

Basketball Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -

Serbia vs. Croatia, 11 a.m. (et)

Spain vs. Greece, 2 p.m. (et)

Lesseters Basketball Betting News

<< Mets turn to rookie in hopes of besting Cubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jenrry Mejia makes his first major league start this afternoon, when the New York Mets continue their three-game series with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The 20-year-old right-hander made the Mets with a terrific spr

<< Red Sox, White Sox to begin set with double dip
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- After mother nature delayed the opening of this important weekend set, the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox will renew acquaintances with a day-night doubleheader that begins this afternoon from Fenway Park. The arriv

<< Scorching Yanks seek eight straight win in test with Jays
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- The New York Yankees have solved just about all their problems during a seven-game winning streak that matches the team's longest of the season. The defending world champions will now turn their attention towards getting Jav

<< Georgia holds A.J. Green out of opener
ATHENS, Ga. (AP) -Georgia star receiver A.J. Green is being held out of the Bulldogs' opening game against Louisiana-Lafayette.Georgia spokesman Claude Felton says Green will miss Saturday's game for the No. 23 Bulldogs pending a ruling from the NCA

<< Sisk keeps lead at Mylan Classic
Canonsburg, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geoffrey Sisk remained atop the leaderboard Saturday when the second round of the rain-delayed Mylan Classic was completed. Sisk played the final three holes of his round and finished off a four

Twins, Rangers continue high-stakes series of division leaders >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Target Field has been able to provide the Minnesota Twins with a distinct advantage in its first year of existence, something the current American League Central leaders would like to have during the first round of the playo

Marquee mound matchup on tap in Angels-A's tilt >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- This afternoon's showdown between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Oakland Athletics may have little effect on the American League playoff race, but fans attending the Coliseum today should be treated to a top-notch pit

Cards seek to gain further ground on first-place Reds >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Wainwright tries once again to become the National League's first 18-game winner when the St. Louis Cardinals continue their three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds today at Busch Stadium. Like his team, Wainwri

Rockies try to pin ninth straight loss on reeling Padres >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres try to avoid a ninth straight loss this afternoon, when they play the middle test of their three-game series with the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park. San Diego's slide continued in the opener of this s

Braves try to bounce back in key series with Marlins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Johnson hopes for a better result than the last time he faced Atlanta when he and the Florida Marlins continue their three-game set with the Braves tonight at Sun Life Stadium. Johnson surrendered just three hits and

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.