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08/10/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not many betting angles stand the test of time, but the Pac-10 has one to definitely keep an eye on.
The league has now posted 10 straight seasons of above .500 ATS records in non-conference play, with an overall winning percentage of 55%. That number won't make you rich, but it certainly won't put you in the red either.
Some other notable trends to watch for this season involve USC. The Trojans are just 12-22-1 as conference favorites over the last four years while covering only one of their last nine on the road.
Stanford, with its ATS win over USC last season, is now 5-1 ATS versus the Trojans since '04, while Washington, Arizona and Oregon State have also dominated Southern California over the last five seasons with a combined 13-2 ATS mark.
Washington, despite its ATS dominance over USC, still has trouble with Arizona State, Oregon and Stanford. The Huskies have not covered a game against the Sun Devils since '01 and the Ducks since '03. Meanwhile, Stanford owns Steve Sarkisian's team with a 5-1 ATS record the last six meetings.
Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/under for total victories.
10) WASHINGTON STATE - The Cougars were 5-7 ATS last season, 0-4 in their final four games. They are 6-12 ATS in conference play over the last two years.
Offense - The Cougars offense ranked next-to-last nationally in scoring (12 ppg) and total offense (249 ypg) in '09. In fact, they scored half as many points in just one overtime session (3) as they did in first quarter play throughout the entire season (6). Injuries crippled them for most of the year so if the offense can stay healthy, don't be shocked if Washington State hovers close to the 20 ppg mark in 2010.
Defense - Injuries also plagued the defense as one-half of the line was lost after Week 2, while two secondary starters were gone by the midway point of the season. On the bright side, the unit gave up 39.7 ppg in league play after allowing over 50 ppg the year before.
Prediction - It is doubtful the Cougars will win more than one or two games, but they should be more competitive. Look for an above .500 ATS record. (1-11, 0-9)
9) ARIZONA STATE - The Sun Devils went 6-5 ATS last season while finishing 9-2 to the under. They are 9-5 ATS as home favorites over the last three years.
Offense - Head coach Dennis Erickson hired a new offensive coordinator after the team averaged only 18 ppg in Pac-10 play. Noel Mazzone brings in a high- tempo offensive game plan with more emphasis on the pass. Unfortunately, the new schemes failed in the spring with just one touchdown pass and five interceptions.
Defense - Arizona State led the league in both rushing and passing defense, but seven starters have departed, including six of the top eight tacklers. If the offense falls flat, look for the defense to be on the field a lot more than last year's 775 total plays.
Prediction - The only thing that saved the Sun Devils last year was their defense. That will not be the case in 2010. Bet against them over the first half of the season. (4-8, 2-7)
8) UCLA - The Bruins finished 7-6 ATS in '09. They are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 home games and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 contests off a SU loss.
Offense - Quarterback Kevin Prince still has a lot of improving to do after completing just 48% of his passes for a grand total of 392 yards against Arizona, Arizona State, USC and Oregon. If he picks up his play in his sophomore campaign, the offense is capable of doing some damage.
Defense - For as well as the defense played last season, opposing league rushers averaged 4.7 ypc and quarterbacks completed 63% of their passes. The front seven brings in five new starters meaning the Bruins will allow a much higher point total than the 21 ppg given up in '09.
Prediction - UCLA will suffer growing pains in preparation for what should be a much better season a year from now. Save your money for 2011. (4-8, 3-6)
7) CALIFORNIA - The Golden Bears went 5-7 ATS last season. They are 3-9 ATS as road favorites since '07.
Offense - This side of the ball was the problem area for California as the club finished seventh in league play averaging just 22.8 ppg. Time of possession is usually not a meaningful statistic in football but it was for the Bears as they were 5-0 SU when leading in that category and 3-5 when behind. With an improved line, look for the offense to pick up, especially with running back Shane Vereen leading the way.
Defense - After allowing 21 points or more in only four games two seasons ago, the defense allowed three touchdowns or greater in nine of last year's 13 contests. Five of the top seven tacklers have departed so don't expect any miracles in Berkeley.
Prediction - The Bears have garnered better ATS records (compared to the previous season) in three of the last four even-numbered years. (7-5, 4-5)
6) WASHINGTON - The Huskies ended up 7-5 ATS in '09. They were 5-4 ATS in conference play after going 3-15 the previous two years combined.
Offense - In last year's preview, I predicted the Huskies would have the most improved offense in the country. They came close, finishing fourth behind Auburn, Arkansas and Idaho. With 10 starters back, they'll hit the 30 ppg mark for the first time since '02.
Defense - Defensive coordinator Nick Holt brought respectability back to the Huskies defense but there is still room to grow. The only question mark is at defensive end where Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, the school's all-time sack leader, needs to be replaced.
Prediction - Washington improved from 0-5 ATS on the road in '08 to 2-3 last season. Look for the Huskies to top the .500 mark in 2010. (7-5, 5-4)
5) USC - The Trojans were 4-9 ATS last season, their worst mark since 2000. They are 3-9 as road favorites over the last two years.
Offense - USC ranked sixth in scoring and seventh in total offense in Pac-10 play last year and that was with nine returning starters. Only five return this season. Still, this unit can't be as bad as it was a season ago so expect a slight bump in production.
Defense - This was the area that troubled the USC faithful last year. The Trojans gave up a combined 110 points to Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon, the most points allowed in a three-week stretch in school history. And that doesn't even include the 55 points Stanford threw at them. With the entire secondary needing to be replaced, don't expect a reversal of form.
Prediction - Since the public still loves to bet the Trojans, another sub .500 ATS record could be in the cards. (9-4, 5-4)
4) ARIZONA - The Wildcats went 6-6 ATS last season. They are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.
Offense - Last year's offensive output diminished from 36.6 ppg to 27.4, partly due to finishing tied for 97th inside the red zone after ranking sixth nationally two seasons ago. With a bump up in that category, Arizona will improve its scoring average in quarterback Nick Foles' junior season.
Defense - Seven starters need to be replaced from a unit that ranked second in the conference in total defense. Changes have already been made as two new defensive coordinators replace Mark Stoops. Look for a lot of different looks, including more nickel and dime packages, along with three or four defensive ends on the field at the same time.
Prediction - Arizona is 10-2 ATS at home over the last two years. Keep that in mind as the Wildcats play four of their first five games in Tucson. (7-5, 5-4)
3) STANFORD - The Cardinal finished 8-5 ATS last year, going 7-1 to the over in its final eight games. The club is 14-5 ATS as a home favorite over the last eight years.
Offense - Without running back Toby Gerhart, sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck must improve in a hurry after completing only 56% of his throws last season. He does have one of the most underrated offensive lines in front of him, as well as last year's three leading receivers. However, the team's point per game average will take a hit from 35.5 down to around 28 ppg.
Defense - The defense regressed slightly last season allowing 23 more yards per game so head coach Jim Harbaugh hired Vic Fangio, who immediately changed the "D" to a 3-4 set. Five of last year's top seven tacklers return so look for improved numbers in 2010.
Prediction - Expectations are high after last year's 8-4 regular season record so the public might back Stanford more than warranted. (8-4, 6-3)
2) OREGON STATE - The Beavers finished 7-5 ATS in '09, but covered four of their final five games. They are 6-1 as road underdogs over the last two years
Offense - The offense has been extremely consistent over the last 12 years averaging between 26 and 33 ppg (31.5 in '09). This season will be no different even with a new starting quarterback. Still, a slight drop off is expected since it's doubtful the Beavers will lead the country in red zone efficiency for a second straight year.
Defense - Oregon State returns seven starters on defense, a major upgrade after bringing back just three in each of the last two seasons. This defense has a chance to dominate as the '07 unit did when it led Pac-10 play in both ypc allowed and opposing quarterback completion percentage.
Prediction - Keep in mind, the Beavers are 2-7 ATS in the first three games over the last three years combined. They are 22-6 ATS thereafter. (8-4, 7-2)
1) OREGON - The Ducks were 7-6 ATS last season. They are 36-24 ATS in league play over the last seven years.
Offense - Jeremiah Masoli is off to Ole Miss, but don't expect the offense to suffer with either Nate Costa or Darron Thomas leading the way. In fact, it could be even more dynamic with the addition of a decent passing game. Don't forget, the Ducks converted just 37% on third downs the last two years combined with Masoli at the helm, compared to 44% between '05 and '07.
Defense - Oregon led the Pac-10 in yards allowed per play at 4.6. The defense was also number one inside the conference against both the run and pass. Look for more of the same this season with nine of the top 10 tacklers back in Eugene.
Prediction - The Ducks are the most complete team in the league. They will also improve on last season's 7-6 ATS record. (11-1, 8-1)
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.
Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.
Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.
So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.
In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.
For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.
The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.
The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.
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