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07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Atlanta Braves want to hold onto first place in the National League East, they must find a way to consistently beat teams like the Washington Nationals. Lucky for them, that is Tim Hudson's specialty.
Hudson will try to improve on his stellar career record versus Washington this evening and help Atlanta even a three-game series at Nationals Park.
The 35-year-old All-Star threw seven scoreless innings to beat the Nationals the last time he faced them on June 28, upping his career mark against the franchise to 9-1 with an outstanding 1.51 earned run average in 15 starts. He has won eight straight decisions against them since his lone loss on June 5, 2006.
Hudson, though, has been a bit inconsistent himself for the Braves. He has alternated wins and losses over his last eight starts, giving up just one run in the four victories -- including none in the last three -- while yielding 15 runs in the four losses.
The right-hander is coming off a victory over the Padres in which he threw seven scoreless innings on Thursday, improving to 10-5 with a 2.47 ERA on the season.
Hudson will try to get the Braves back on track after they lost last night's opener to Washington, 3-0, even though the Nationals were forced to scratch phenom Stephen Strasburg late due to right shoulder inflammation that leaves the young hurler day-to-day.
Miguel Batista stepped up in an emergency role and threw five scoreless innings, with three Washington relievers combining to hold Atlanta to just two hits the rest of the way. Matt Capps pitched a perfect ninth to earn his 25th save.
"Miguel has been a staff saver for us," Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said. "And [Tuesday] he was more than that. He was outstanding."
Ian Desmond had two hits and drove in two runs for the Nationals, who snapped a three-game slide and won for the third time in 10 games. They have won four of seven overall versus the Braves this year, including three of four at home.
Eric Hinske had two of Atlanta's five hits and Tommy Hanson allowed three runs -- just one earned -- over six innings to take the loss, his team's third in four games to start a nine-game road trip.
"We didn't have many chances," said Braves manager Bobby Cox, whose club will try to avoid dropping three in a row since getting swept by the Chicago White Sox from June 22-24.
The Braves, who have seen their lead over the second-place Philadelphia Phillies fall to 3 1/2 games, were without Nate McLouth after sending the struggling center fielder to Triple-A Gwinnett before the game. McLouth had just six hits in his last 63 at-bats and is hitting .168 with three homers and 14 RBI on the year.
The Nationals will turn tonight to Livan Hernandez, who snapped a five-start winless drought (0-2) with a victory in Cincinnati on Thursday.
The 35-year-old righty picked up his first win since June 21 after allowing a run on seven hits in a complete-game effort, his second of the season and 49th of his career. He didn't walk a batter and struck out five.
Hernandez improved to 7-6 with a 3.12 ERA this year and is 6-15 with a 5.16 ERA in his career versus the Braves, whom he beat on May 4 after giving up just two runs -- one earned -- over 5 1/3 frames.
<< Rangers seeking to extend lead on second-place A's
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cliff Lee sure is one tough act to follow.
Colby Lewis will have to do just that tonight as he aims to pitch the Texas
Rangers to a fourth straight victory over the Oakland Athletics in the middle
contest of a three-game s
<< Posey puts 20-game hit streak on the line as Giants battle Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie Buster Posey tries to extend his 20-game hitting
streak this evening when the San Francisco Giants and Florida Marlins resume
their four-game series at AT&T Park.
San Francisco stayed hot on Tuesday, as Juan Uri
<< Santana, Garcia duel again in Mets-Cards clash
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Jamie Garcia
faced New York Mets ace Johan Santana, the rookie was able to match the two-
time Cy Young Award winner pitch-for-pitch.
He may find that to be more difficult tonight.
<< Struggling Rockies seek to bring skid to a close against Pirates
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies try to avoid their eighth straight
loss this evening when they play the middle test of their three-game series
with the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field.
Following a 2-9 road trip, things didn't get a
Reds wrap up set in Milwaukee >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After breaking out of an offensive slump last night, the
Cincinnati Reds hope to be swinging hot bats for a second straight day when
the National League Central co-leaders conclude a three-game series with the
Milwaukee Brewe
Twins hope to continue offensive onslaught in Kansas City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their offense producing runs at an incredible rate,
the Minnesota Twins set their sights on a fifth straight victory as well as a
three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals when the American League Central
foes square o
Phillies try to extend season-best win streak against D-Backs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Halladay tries to extend the Philadelphia Phillies'
season-high win streak to seven games this evening when they continue their
three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Halladay won for th
Argos and Als square off for first in the East >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their touchdown drought now a memory, the
Montreal Alouettes turn their attention to the Toronto Argonauts as the two
clubs, tied for the lead in the CFL's Eastern Division, tangle at McGill
Stadium on Thurs
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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